Starmer's Allies Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.

Serious Obstacles in the Selection Process

Several members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.